destination estimation from public transport smartcard data


Although this article is "well old" as young people would say, it is interesting. Yorcard undertook a similar study back in 2012 with the aim of allowing public authorities to estimate the length of trips taken by ENCTS passengers to make reimbursement calculations more accurate, or at least less subject to argument.

Obviously, we were using ITSO data, which included only fare stage location data. Our findings were broadly in line with the study reported here. Over half the data was unmatched single trips - on some routes almost all the data was unmatched, our best cases were about 70% of trips matched a subsequent trip on the same day. Unfortunately, once we verbally reported the general outcome (that the analysis would not produce a usable answer to  "what's the average trip length") the work was abandoned, so I have no written report to offer